Two mid-major powerhouses will go head-to-head as 5-seed San Diego State takes on 12-seed College of Charleston in the first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
San Diego State headlines a surprisingly large contingent of Mountain West schools in this year's tournament. Four teams from the conference made the field, with the other three being Boise State, Utah State and Nevada.
The Aztecs are fresh off a 62-57 victory over Utah State in the conference championship game that punched their ticket to the dance. This is their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance under head coach Brian Dutcher. They haven't made it past the first round in any of their last three appearances overall, however.
No. 20 Sdsu To Face College Of Charleston At Ncaas
On the other side is the red-hot champion of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Cougars have put together a remarkable season that included taking down UNC-Wilmington 63-58 in the conference championship.
This is the sixth tournament appearance in program history for the squad from South Carolina, but just the second since 1999. Led by second-year head coach Pat Kelsey, the team drew national attention during the season. There's no doubt this is one of the hottest teams in the country right now; it's riding a 10-game winning streak into March Madness.
San Diego State vs. College of Charleston will be the first 5-vs.-12 matchup of the 2023 tournament, with tipoff scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 16. The game will be played at Amway Center in Orlando, Fla.
College Of Charleston Cougars Vs San Diego State Aztecs Odds
This squad has serious dark-horse potential. Punching well above its weight in the NET and KenPom rankings, it can wear down just about anyone with stifling defense and impressive depth.
The Aztecs rank 27th in the country in defensive efficiency and 34th in rebounding, which can be a good formula for grinding out wins in March.
Their weakness is on the offensive end, where they rank 105th in efficiency. They'll have to make sure their opponents don't get hot, because they aren't especially well-equipped for a high-scoring game.
San Diego State Tops Charleston 63 57 In Ncaa Tourney National News
The Cougars will be a trendy pick to pull off upsets this March. One of their three losses was to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. They haven't lost since a 70-69 defeat to Drexel on Feb. 2. Even if they hadn't won their conference tournament, they would have been in consideration for an at-large bid.
This is a team with very few weaknesses on paper. It ranks in the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and it features a balanced group of scorers that can hurt its opponent in a variety of ways. It's also a very good rebounding team that tends to stay out of foul trouble.
With the ability to light it up behind the arc— Charleston ranked 10th in Division I in 3-pointers made per game— this is a squad no one will look forward to playing in the dance.
March Madness 2023 Picks: San Diego State Charleston Prediction In First Round Of Ncaa Tournament
This matchup will likely come down to whether San Diego State can keep Charleston quiet from beyond the arc. The Aztecs need to play the game on their terms by slowing the pace down, winning the rebounding battle and playing solid perimeter defense. If they can do all those things, they'll be in good shape to advance to the second round.
Charleston will need to figure out a way to overcome SDSU's stingy defense, but it has the tools to do so. Brzovic is a force in the paint, and plenty of shooters can knock down shots from beyond the arc. At least on paper, this looks like a good matchup for the Cougars.
Go with the upset here. Charleston's dynamic offensive attack will help lead it to the victory and into the second round, where it will face 4-seed Virginia or 13-seed Furman.
San Diego State Vs Charleston (sc) Prediction: Odds, Picks, Best Bets
The 12-5 upset is always a popular pick in March Madness brackets, and for good reason. In 10 of the last 13 years, at least one 5-seed has upset a 12-seed.
Overall, No. 5 seeds hold a 96-52 head-to-head advantage over No. 12 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That means, historically, 12 seeds have pulled off the upset 35.1 percent of the time.San Diego State will take on Charleston in what looks like a fascinating matchup in the South Region. Check out how the two teams stack up, and our pick for who will advance.
San Diego State (27-6, 15-3/Mountain West)- The Mountain West is consistently one of, if not, the best mid-major conference in college hoops, and no team has been more consistently successful than San Diego State. Under Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs have been to the tournament four times in five seasons that there has been a tourney, but they’re still looking to make it out of the Round of 64.
Ncaa Tournament Predictions: 5. San Diego State Vs. 12. Charleston
The 2022-23 squad, the Mountain West champions, seem positioned well to do that. San Diego State’s biggest strengths are its defensive prowess, as they’re allowing just 63 points per game and its depth (10 players average at least 10 minutes per game). They’ve also shown the capability of competing with elite opponents, playing wire-to-wire with Arkansas and Saint Mary’s in the non-conference schedule and beating Boise State and Nevada in the MWC.
San Diego State has been exposed in previous tournaments for their lack of offense against elite competition, and that could be an issue once again. Matt Bradley (12.9 ppg) is the team’s primary scoring threat, but SDSU ranks below the top 100 in the country overall in offensive efficiency and in points per game.
San Diego State once again has had a dominant regular season, but they will suffer a case of “believe it when I see it” for weary folks in determining how far to send them through in their brackets. To buck the trend, they’ll need to lock down Charleston defensively, force turnovers, and try to get Bradley into a rhythm early.
San Diego State Vs Charleston (sc) Prediction, Odds
Charleston guard Dalton Bolon, right, shoots against UNC Wilmington guard Maleeck Harden-Hayes, left, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in the championship of the Colonial Athletic Association conference tournament, Tuesday, March 7, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Charleston (31-3, 16-2/CAA)- Charleston was one of the mid-major stories of the season, racing out to a 21-1 record and climbing as high as No. 18 in the AP poll. Led by one of the most explosive offenses in the country (ranking 15th at 80.8 ppg), the Cougars looked like an NCAA Tournament lock until back-to-back losses in the middle of the conference season put them on shakier ground. Not to worry. Head coach Pat Kelsey, who won big at Winthrop before taking over at Charleston, was able to steady the ship and the Cougs reeled off another 10 consecutive wins to punch their ticket to the tournament.
Charleston can beat you in a number of ways, as five players average in double figures in scoring and a sixth (forward Ben Burnham) averages 9 per game. Senior guard Dalton Bolon and sophomore forward Ante Brzovic lead the way, but this team is lethal from 3-point range and has a number of capable scorers. Charleston is absolutely a threat to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.Credit: Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured from left: Matt Bradley of San Diego State and Ryan Larson of Charleston.
San Diego State Vs Charleston Prediction, Game Preview, Ncaa Tournament First Round
As a mid-major program, the Cougars rolled through league play, won 31 games in total and had one of the longest win streaks in the nation when they won 20 straight games.
They’re sure to be a trendy first-round upset pick when they face off against a fellow mid-major in San Diego State, in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday.
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The Aztecs were marginally underseeded when comparing their 5-seed to their underlying numbers. San Diego State won both the regular-season and conference tournament crown in the Mountain West.
Cougars Earn First Round Battle With San Diego State
However, the conference has had its struggles in the actual tournament, and the Aztecs did lose in the first round of the Big Dance in 2021 to Syracuse and 2022 to Creighton despite being a higher seed and favorite in both matchups.
This matchup is intriguing because it’s an ultimate pace clash featuring the run-and-gun Charleston offense that’s 29th in adjusted tempo nationally. San Diego State wants to play in the half-court and is one of the most physically imposing defenses in the entire country.
Although the Cougars will be a popular upset pick in many brackets, the Aztecs caught a favorable matchup here and are undervalued to move into Round 2.
Ncaa Tournament Preview: No. 5 Seed San Diego State Vs. No. 12 College Of Charleston
The Cougars shoot 3s at the ninth-highest attempt rate in the country, but they’re going to struggle to execute in the half-court against the Aztecs defense.
There’s no clear area where the Cougars offense has an edge over the Aztecs on Thursday. It’s not inside, where Charleston makes up for its shooting efficiency from deep by pulling in a ton of offensive rebounds. San Diego State is a good defensive rebounding team, and it applies a ton of on-ball pressure to disrupt passing lanes and offensive flow.
The Cougars will try to run as much as possible in this matchup, but San Diego State is an elite transition defense. The Aztecs are